Trudeau’s fate might depend on Calgary (!?)

Calgary is top of mind for the Alberta NDP, which this week, should give both the federal NDP and Liberals pause for thought on two big issues.

Ever since the birth of the National Energy Program under former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Calgary and the Trudeau family have existed as two celestial bodies orbiting each other in a death spiral. The perfect literary foil to each other, the Trudeau family has defined its Laurentian political bonafides over the years by trying to beat their version of civility into the untameable mustang of a city.

However, a recent political deal signed by Pierre's son, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, might be set to put a pause on that dynamic, for a moment at least.

Enter federal New Democratic Leader Jagmeet Singh, who, last year, made a pact with the federal Liberals to prop their minority government up on matters of confidence. Almost one year after the agreement was made, this week the NDP will face its first two significant tests of resolve. From there, the viability of the deal becomes even murkier. 

And Calgary is right in the middle of this political calculus.

That's because the federal NDP, currently the fourth party in the federal House of Commons, is reportedly competitive in the upcoming provincial election in Alberta, with the outcome likely to be determined in the city of Calgary. Unlike other political parties in Canada, the federal NDP and the provincial NDP are formally one party united under a governance arrangement. This means that the decisions the federal NDP makes in Ottawa are directly reflected on the provincial party's decisions and vice versa.

So here are the politics of the situation.

Putting it very mildly, Calgary voters have an unfavorable view of Trudeau and his Liberal party. So to win Calgary voters, provincial NDP leader Rachel Notley has to put distance between herself and Trudeau. However, federal leader Jagmeet Singh is in a formal agreement to prop up Trudeau's Liberal majority during a time when many Calgarians would like nothing more than to see Trudeau defeated in a general election.

Said a different way, even if there was no formal linkage between the federal and provincial NDP, every time Singh gets closer to Trudeau, Notely gets farther from the Premier's office. (A similar dynamic also exists in the upcoming provincial election in Manitoba.)

So this week, Singh will have to whip his caucus on a contentious vote. The motion, put forward by the federal Conservatives, would compel Trudeau's Chief of Staff, Katie Telford, to testify in front of a House Committee regarding a CSIS briefing that warned senior Liberals about potential foreign election interference. The Liberals do not want this motion to be adopted and will lean on Singh for support.  But Notley will not want Singh to give her competition, the United Conservative Party, any further proof points that the NDP are Liberal toadies.

The question many are asking this morning is, what will Singh do?

Singh will find himself in a similar position just over two weeks from now when he will have to decide whether to support the Liberal's federal budget, which will be a confidence motion. Suppose the budget doesn't include what Singh negotiated for his party in their agreement with the Liberals or contains measures likely to be unpopular in Alberta. He risks the NDP's fortunes in Alberta if he supports an unpopular budget. But if he votes it down, he'll be in a federal election.

Fortunately for Singh, Justin Trudeau's polling numbers mean that the Liberals cannot afford to go to a federal election right now. So, at the moment, Trudeau might be more amenable to approving some of Singh's demands, including if he wanted to force Telford to testify.

On the other hand, Trudeau might call Singh's bluff. Bluntly put, the federal NDP's fundraising numbers have been lackluster. With two provincial elections (Alberta and Manitoba) where the NDP expects to perform well, activist resources to run campaigns will be stretched thin. And while Singh's polling numbers are trending upward federally, many in his caucus will be concerned about a surge in federal Conservative support in the NDP's traditional base of support amongst unionized labour. No one in the federal NDP is currently clamoring for a federal election.

And, the reality is that right now no pollster is projecting Singh to make a major breakthrough for his party in the next federal election. The NDP's current seat count is 25. And even with Trudeau's polling numbers trending south, the best projections on if an election was held today show the NDP's seat count holding at that level. That's why right now, the NDP is probably more focused on hunting where they feel the ducks are - the Alberta and Manitoba provincial elections. 

This dynamic means that despite the NDP likely wanting to avoid a federal election, they will be under enormous pressure from their provincial siblings to do everything in their power to show a contrast with Trudeau. 

And that means that Justin Trudeau, for once, needs to care about Calgary voters. The last thing his federal Liberal party needs is an accidental federal election triggered by pushing the federal NDP too far on issues that will alienate them Calgarians their provincial cousins need to woo over the next two months.

Now, this dynamic is not some political masterstroke of any wing of the NDP. The NDP also have to manage the expectations of their far left flank, who may not be enamored with Trudeau, but also expect the NDP to hold up certain leftist policies that are not necessarily popular in the right-of-centre leaning city of Calgary. Of course, the Alberta NDP would love it if their political fortunes didn't live or die in Calgary, either. The city is showing signs of weariness with the left-of-centre politicians it currently has. If the Alberta NDP want to succeed in Calgary, they can’t been seen tacking to the left on matters that give them little political lift, for example, too-often siding with the federal Liberals.

But there is one party this dynamic certainly favours - the Alberta United Conservative Party. They are undoubtedly watching every move the federal NDP makes this week and are ready with advertising to point out anything that proves the NDP as a flaccid puppet arm of the federal Liberals. 

So the smart money on how the federal NDP will approach the federal Liberals lies in how Calgary voters will receive these actions.

This week's question is whether the federal NDP has any smart money to spend.