The kids aren’t alright, and they’re changing the laws of political physics.
Born after the mid 1980’s? All political bets are off.
Throughout January, Michelle's Substack will feature essays on under-reported issues that could impact Canadians in 2023 and beyond. This is the third article in this series.
Recently, two of my friends burst into defeated laughter while out for coffee. The butt of the joke was their prospects of eventually owning a home in Canada.
Both of my friends are in their late 20's, are in stable relationships, are childless, have relatively good-paying jobs, and have university degrees. All these things considered, the source of their laughter shouldn't have been a cause of concern for them - but it was.
From there, our conversation lapsed into a serious discussion about politics. They expressed frustration with a perceived lack of political options that could effectively get results for them on climate change, economic prosperity (including housing affordability), social inclusion issues, and protection of personal liberty.
This viewpoint illustrates the emerging difficulty of pinning Millennial and Generation Z voters (roughly speaking, those born after the mid-1980s) into neat, traditional, left vs. right ideological political boxes.
This dynamic has the potential to significantly impact the success or failure of political parties in North America.
It's tempting for political leaders to dismiss the current politics of this age cohort with several historically proven trends:
The definition of what it means to hold right-wing or left-wing political views naturally shifts slightly with each generation.
Voters tend to start voting to the left but progress to the right as they age.
Younger voters tend to turn out to vote in significantly fewer numbers than older voters.
But these assumptions miss trends emerging at the ballot box in several Western nations.
Recent research on Millennial voting intentions in both the United States and the United Kingdom suggests that the Millennial cohort is not shifting its voting intentions towards right-of-centre parties as they age. And in the recent American midterm elections, where access to legal abortion was a central ballot issue for many Americans, younger voters turned out in record numbers. With Millennial and Gen Z voters on the cusp of becoming the biggest voting block of any age cohort, these trends should give all mainstream Western political parties pause for thought.
Recent analysis of this trend suggests good news for the political fortunes of traditional left-of-centre political parties. However, there are some notable data points that temper expectations.
In the United States, while Gen Z voters lean towards prioritizing issues traditionally associated with left-of-centre parties, 2020 polling data suggested that Gen Z voters were more likely to vote against Donald Trump than for Joe Biden. While this indicates that the Trump-led, MAGA-focused Republican party was leaning into issues that repelled this age cohort, it also indicates that the American Democrats are not entirely hitting the mark with them either.
In Canada, the Conservative Party, Canada's primary right-of-centre political entity, has not campaigned on restricting abortion access. Additionally, Canada's current Liberal government, having been in power for nearly a decade and governing during one of the worst inflationary crises in recent history, is looking long in the tooth. These factors may partially explain why recent polling suggests that Canada's Conservatives are seeing an uptick in support from Millennial and Gen Z voters and why Canada's voter turnout among Millennial and Gen Z voters has remained relatively low in the last two federal elections.
But for many Western right-of-centre parties, who have traditionally placed economic growth issues ahead of social issues as ballot question priorities, there's limited evidence to suggest that these voting cohorts are willing to trade leadership on issues like climate and social inclusion for economic gain.
In Canada, a strong majority of Millennial and Gen Z voters support issues like legal access to reproductive health services, LGBTQ+ rights, and addressing First Nations reconciliation. And globally, Millennials and Gen Z are more likely to prioritize climate action as a political issue than older demographics.
But some deeply troubling data points also buck the trend of suggesting that this age cohort is uniformly more enlightened on social issues than those who have preceded them and that men and women in the age group share the same politics. For example, on gender, a recent survey of over 10,000 people in 14 western countries suggests that 18-34-year-olds are less comfortable with female leaders than their older peers. And younger social media influencers who express anti-gender equality viewpoints have amassed millions of views, and key leaders and followers from the incel movement are under 40.
To quell frustration in this age cohort - read, limit the temptation for them to look towards extremist movements for political action - mainstream political parties should be considering how to adapt their leadership styles and policies to present options without assuming that these voters are prone to vote one way over an other, or will conform to historical political trends.
Why? For the first time in multiple generations, those aged 35 and younger have come of age in an entirely different socioeconomic context than those who came before them.
In most Western counties, Millennials and Gen Z are the first generations of the global, digital economy and the transition beyond the social mores that upheld the means of economic production in regionally insular agrarian societies.
They are children of immigrants and see diversity within their community as a positive value, not a threat. Perceptions of gender roles that have been in place for centuries have also radically changed within the last few decades. Millennials and Gen Z grew up in an era where most aspects of the economy became relatively open to the participation of women. Blended and dual-income families are their norm, not their exception.
They grew up with birth control that is effective, widely available, and mostly socially acceptable. They are more likely to be childless or have less children than their older peers. They are more likely to have some form of post-secondary education and have been exposed to traditionally left-leaning ideology than their older peers.
They grew up with federal government intervention being ubiquitous. They are more likely to demand higher wages and better working conditions for their labour, and expect more from their governments.
Most only know what life looks like with the connectivity of the internet, smartphones, or social media. They have had more exposure to the world via the internet, social media, and other cultures and religions within their communities.
As their parents and grandparents generations retire, many of whom are doing so in historically successful financial positions, Millennials and Gen Z’ers are beginning to shoulder the burden of ensuring that our economies function while ensuring that older generations are cared for as they age.
They are also the first generations in over a century that tend to view their prospects as less bright than their parents. This is perhaps the most important characteristic of this age cohort.
They are the first generations to be significantly preoccupied with the real existential threats of climate change, artificial general intelligence, unfunded pension liabilities, and the emergence of major non-democratic economies.
They are the first generations since the Great Wars to deal with the real possibility of long-term, stagnant economic growth. They are considerably less likely to be able to afford a home and more likely to live with their parents into their 30s. They function in the gig economy. They have grown up in an era where previous generations have seen fit to allow large corporations to profit off exploiting the data they create and have seen the value of privacy be reduced to next to nothing.
There is a growing anger and disenchantment in many areas of politics can be attributed to this generation feeling like political parties are treating things like business as usual, as opposed to trying to meet the challenges of their future.
To meet this challenge, political parties must be open to adapting viewpoints, assumptions, and operating structures that have worked for decades but are now faltering in light of rapid socioeconomic change. They will need to challenge those who dismiss the political trends of this generation as the short-term growing pains of a new voter cohort.
If they don't, political parties will face one law of political physics that no generation will ever change. Nature abhors a vacuum, and in the absence of a political movement that meets the needs of younger voters, they'll create one that does - existing political structures be damned.