Spring election planning or caucus management?

The Liberals just made a move that set tongues wagging on Parliament Hill. Is it a sign of a looming spring election, or is it something else?

This week, as reported in the Hill Times, the governing Liberal Party set out expectations that their existing Members of Parliament would have to meet if they wanted to run again for the party in the next federal election. 

This is what’s referred to when politicos talk about “securing a nomination” - the process a candidate goes through to get their name on a federal election ballot with a party affiliation attached to it.

It’s also what happens when a party starts gearing up for a general election.

While the Liberals don’t hold a majority of seats in the House of Commons, they are in a coalition agreement with the New Democratic Party which, if it holds, could see this Parliament last until 2025. Governing parties typically are slow to move on the nomination process for incumbent MPs. So, much speculation arose this week when the Liberals spurred nomination protection requirements for current Liberal Members of Parliament. 

If there’s no looming election, what gives?

As context for some of the prevailing theories that are swirling around Ottawa backrooms, most MPs are in a constant state of putting in work to secure the support of people in their community. When done properly this compliments legislative work. Attending community events, communicating on social media, doorknocking, making phone calls, and meeting with community organizations gives direction that an MP can use to inform their actions in Parliament. It also establishes the trust of the community in their MP, which can be used to hold a nomination.

Now, opposition MPs are used to putting in long hours on a variety of political activities because they have fewer resources available to them than government MPs do, so are naturally in a state of constant work. Most Liberal MPs, by contrast, have been able to bank on the popularity of Justin Trudeau in their home ridings to get them by with relatively less effort.

But times have changed. The Liberals have been in government for over seven years now. For the first time since 2015, the Liberals are seeing sustained downward polling trends, particularly in ridings previously considered “safe” for incumbents, like in the Greater Toronto Area and in parts of Quebec. Dissatisfaction with Liberal party leader Justin Trudeau is also growing, while for the first time in years, the Conservative Party has seen its numbers increase.

So now when Liberal MPs are in their ridings, or among their supporters, they probably are getting an earful. For the first time in the Trudeau government’s tenure, his caucus is probably having a harder time fundraising in their ridings and having harder conversations at their doors - even among previously identified supporters. Gone are the halcyon days of Justin Trudeau’s sunny ways. Liberal MPs who came in on the majority wave in 2015 may be tempted to turtle up as opposed to lean in.

And therein lies the first reason why some are speculating the Liberals have triggered their incumbent nomination protection process so early. By mandating a certain amount of doorknocking and fundraising to be done by March to secure their nominations, Liberal MPs who might have opted to keep a low profile over the winter Parliamentary recess will be forced out into their communities to shore up support and raise funds for a party that has seen a recent dramatic drop in donations.

And, as the saying goes, idle hands are the devil’s workshop. The nomination protection requirements the Liberals laid out will force their MPs to spend more time working and less time noticing that the wheels are coming off the bus in the PMO. For the MPs in Trudeau’s caucus who know they will never get into cabinet, presently, there is less incentive for them to toe the party line or to give Trudeau blind loyalty. If they are busy working on securing their nomination, they have less time to plot against their party leader. Also, MPs who openly challenge Trudeau might find their nomination process mysteriously beset with obstacles from the highest levels of the party. With a tarnished personal brand, the nomination process is Trudeau’s leverage against his MPs to guarantee their continued good behaviour.

There are also several Liberal MPs who have served for many years who might be looking at the likely dynamics of the next general election and are thinking about not running again. By setting out nomination rules now, Trudeau might be hoping to flush those people out - one way or another - so that the party can replace them with people who might better bolster the party’s political fortunes. He might also see this as a way to push his more vocal critics out the door with enough runway that the ensuing stories don’t linger into the start of a general election campaign.

A less likely reason that I’ve heard speculated about is that the caucus simply wants the nomination process out of the way in case Justin Trudeau doesn’t run again and the party has to go through a leadership race prior to the next election. If incumbent MPs have their nominations secured prior to a turnover in leadership, a caucus tends to be more calm and rational during the proceedings and ensuing transition period.

The decision could also just be the Liberals playing catch up to the Conservatives, who have constant fundraising and outreach expectations for incumbent MPs. 

The last reason why the Liberals might be getting their incumbent MP nomination process out of the way is that they legitimately are thinking about a 2023 election. As Trudeau proved with the 2021 general election, he is willing to bring the government down if he believes it an opportune time to do so. With incumbent nominations protections complete by the spring, the party can focus on the more onerous process of vetting replacement candidates for retiring incumbents and new candidates in unheld ridings.

At the end of the day, the Liberal’s decision around incumbent nominations could be a combination of all of these things. 

One thing is for certain; there will be many Liberal MPs playing catch up on fundraising and outreach targets between now and March.