Sparks won’t fly at this week’s Liberal caucus meeting, but they should.
A culture of caucus going along with dumb decisions led the country to this point. This week’s meeting won’t be any different.
In a development that shows just how far the Liberal party has fallen into disarray, it appears the Liberals have reached the "anonymous caucus source" phase of their mandate.
Over the weekend, the Toronto Star published an article by journalist Althia Raj that was packed full of the gnashing of teeth and wailing of various unnamed Liberal caucus members.
Their complaints? Poor policy decisions that exacerbated an unprecedented housing crisis, a national addictions epidemic, a wave of violent crime, alarming interest rates, and an economy teetering on the brink of recession weren't among them. Nope - the Liberals who spilled the tea to Raj gave quotes solely focused on one thing: polls that suggest that many of them might be in danger of losing their seats.
Despite this apparent lack of self-awareness among the Liberal caucus about why their polling numbers are in the toilet, Raj's article contained one interesting quote. That was that "sparks were going to fly" at this week's Liberal caucus meeting. At least one unnamed Liberal caucus member, after eight years of approval of their party's actions, was going to give Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau an earful.
Now, it's highly doubtful this will happen, and that's because the Liberal caucus is known for one thing above all others - going along with Trudeau's preferred organizational culture of "don't question the leader under any circumstance." But on the off chance the Liberal backbench decides to grow a spine this week, here's (a non-comprehensive) list of what they should be confronting Justin Trudeau with. But since the Liberals haven't shown any signs of self-awareness, also included is how this caucus meeting may play out in actuality.
(N.B. The following assumes that Mr. Trudeau will actually attend at his caucus meeting at all. At time of publication, that was being reported as a point of debate.)
Phase 1
The issue: Trudeau has not sufficiently publicly acknowledged the confluence of crises facing Canadians.
What should happen: The Liberal caucus should force Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, whose most successful foray into the affordability crisis this summer came when she low-key castigated citizens of rural Prince Edward Island for driving cars, into a communications strategy that admits that the fiscal path they've put the country on has made life less affordable Canadians. This one example of many underscores the adage that there needs to be an admission of a problem before it can be fixed.
What will likely happen: Trudeau and Freeland will tell the caucus that everything is fine, that Canadians don't know what they're talking about, that the media is clickbait fearmongering, and cite statistics that have no bearing on the actual cost of living (i.e. Canada's net debt to GDP ratio ranking among peer nations), or ignore Canada's lack of productivity within the private sector (i.e. job creation statistics that heavily lean on public sector subsidization, which in turn has lead to Canada's deficit spending/inflation crisis). The Liberal caucus will clap.
Phase 2
The issue: Trudeau's approach to international relations increasingly places Canada on an isolated island, as uncertain geopolitics affect many aspects of Canadian life.
What should happen: The Liberal caucus should hold Trudeau to account for his significantly less than successful showing at this week's G20 meeting and the overall lack of vision for Canada's place in an uncertain world.
What will likely happen: Trudeau will show his caucus a glossy video taken in India from a staff member that bumped Canadian media pool coverage and proclaim, "Canada is back!". The Liberal caucus will clap. Several caucus members will rise in a standing ovation.
Phase 3
The issue: Trudeau picked a cabinet full of yes people who, despite a cabinet retreat and months of lead time, are headed back into the fall Parliamentary session with no material solutions for issues like housing, crime, or affordability.
What should happen: The caucus should bar the doors and force the cabinet to present concrete proposals that deliver more houses and lower prices for Canadians.
What will likely happen: Trudeau will attempt to villainize Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, tell the caucus everything is OK (maybe even using massaged internal polling), talk about various consultation projects cabinet is working on, and rehash spending programs that have seen fewer houses built, more red tape and have helped make the deficit/inflation crisis. Full standing ovation from the caucus, for sure.
Phase 4
The issue: There seems to be no punishment for Liberals who fail at their files or are caught with ethics violations. In fact, they fail upwards within the Party.
What should happen: The Caucus should ask how Bill Blair, Minister of Carding Torontonians, Ignoring Improprieties within the RCMP, and Failing to Prepare for Wildfire Season, failed upwards into the Defense Ministry. They should question how the man who lost track of how many people were coming into the country and then subsequently blamed those same immigrants for Canada's housing crisis was promoted to the Housing ministry. They should question how ministers with profound ethics violations were allowed to keep their jobs.
What will likely happen: The new cabinet will be introduced to caucus in an NFL entry-style montage, replete with a smoke machine and pyrotechnics, walking into Technotronic's "Pump Up The Jam." Sustained, 30 minutes of clapping and dancing will ensue.
Phase 5
The issue: Trudeau's messaging is focused on promoting failed policies and failed rhetoric and ideology, as opposed to charting a future vision that addresses where the country is currently at.
What should happen: The Caucus should relentlessly demand from Trudeau a concrete plan to deliver on critical issues, like more houses for Canadians in a defined period of time.
What will likely happen: Trudeau will preview an attack ad against Conservative Leader Pierre, which features the words "VOTED AGAINST" at least 27 times, for programs that include the WE Charity scandal, and spending at least $450k per person on hotel quarantines after public health measures have been lifted. The ad will be set to The Beastie Boys "Sabotage" and feature no new policies. The caucus will stand on chairs and dance.
Phase 6
The issue: Compared to other parties, the Liberal Party isn't raising much money.
What should happen: The Caucus should ask Trudeau how he plans to run a successful campaign when polling numbers suggest his brand is a drag on the Liberal Party's brand.
What will likely happen: Trudeau will showcase his master strategy to rebound in the polls and drive up donations- a montage of tweets that Liberal cabinet ministers debuted over the weekend, set to Survivor's "Eye of the Tiger." He'll tell caucus that Canadians are sure to donate their hard-earned cash to the Liberal party, with Immigration Minister Marc Miller calling Poilievre a jackass. Miller will be invited up to the podium to crowdsurf the caucus.
Phase 7
The issue: Trudeau is tired, listless, visionless, and needs a plan to govern the country successfully.
What should happen: The Caucus should force Trudeau to give them a concrete reason beyond "I can't find a better job anywhere else" as to why he should continue to be the leader of their party.
What will likely happen: Trudeau will tell the caucus that the Conservative Party is evil. He will say he's a fighter while the screens flash a picture of him punching an Indigenous man in the face. David Guetta's "Rise" will play. He'll tell the caucus they're more united than ever. Standing ovations, cheering, dancing, clapping. The meeting ends, and the doors burst open in excitement.
Phase 8
What should happen: After their meeting, the caucus should be able to tell the media exactly what the party will do this fall to address the country's plethora of issues.
What will likely happen: The Caucus will have been instructed to avoid media on their way out. Those who do talk will offer a variety of tired "voted against" or tired fearmongering statements about the Conservative party.
FIN.
In all seriousness, I hope the Liberal caucus meeting doesn't play out this way.
New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh shows no signs of ending his agreement with Trudeau, which means the Liberal-NDP coalition could last for two more years. There are too many incredibly serious, pressing issues facing Canada for the Liberal caucus to allow Trudeau and his cabinet to stay on a policy trajectory that, in many cases, is making the problems their constituents are facing worse. Additionally, the Conservative Party has started to present contrasting, smart policies to address issues like the housing crisis.
But old habits die hard, and the Liberal caucus does not have a history questioning its leader. But if the Liberal caucus continues to allow its leader to get a free ride, rest assured that whenever the next election comes, Canadians may end that ride for most of them.