MP retirements? Demotions? Leadership rivals?
In Ottawa backrooms, this week the tea is hot on the reasons why rumours of a cabinet shuffle are swirling.
The winter House of Commons recess, and the break in scrutiny that it brings, cannot come fast enough for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government. Inflation is still on the rise. Canadians are feeling the hammer of rapidly rising interest rates and a healthcare system on the brink of collapse.
2022 has not been a year marked by political fortune for Trudeau's Liberals. And if economic forecasts are correct, the potential for a significant recession in the New Year doesn't portend much optimism for an upswing in public opinion. With their national polling numbers sagging, several political crises in full blaze, and dissent brewing in the ranks of their backbenches, the Liberals are desperate for a channel changer.
Right on cue, rumors of an impending cabinet shuffle have emerged in the Hill Times this week.
What these rumours mean has been the topic of much speculation in Ottawa backrooms this week. So straight from the halls of Parliament Hill to your inbox, here are the leading theories as to why cabinet shuffle rumours are swirling:
Top Contenders
1.) Trudeau wants to put underperforming cabinet Ministers on notice to pick up their game
Trudeau's cabinet haven't exactly outdone themselves this year. From accusations of political interference in a mass murder investigation, to musing about Canada's military impotence, to gaslighting the Auditor General, there's no shortage of examples of Trudeau cabinet stepping in giant piles of brown stuff this year. Rumors of a cabinet shuffle could have been spread to put the underperformers and troublemakers on notice to shape up or ship out.
2.) Trudeau wants to offer a carrot to disgruntled backbenchers
For the first time since becoming Prime Minister, the fall session of 2022 has seen Justin Trudeau face open criticism from his backbench. This dissent comes at a time when the Liberals are desperate to sweep several significant issues under the political rug instead of having them flare up in the media due to backbenchers finding their voice. There's nothing like the prospect of a cabinet position to get an ornery backbencher to fall in line. The dangling carrot of a potential cabinet spot could make some of these folks less likely to speak out and more likely to hold their tongues, for a couple of months, anyway.
3.) Trudeau wants to put a fresh face on files that are nuclear
A few of Trudeau's most prominent cabinet ministers have steadfastly carried water on some of the government's biggest self-inflicted wounds. Take Public Safety Minister Marco Mendocino, for example. His recent greatest hits have included dutifully obfuscating on political masterworks like :
the Liberal's failure to sufficiently evacuate vulnerable Afghan nationals;
Backdating politically problematic documents;
Musing about turning tanks on Canadian citizens and;
Angering the Assembly of First Nations over a proposed hunting rifle ban.
Suppose the Prime Minister's Office has deemed Mendocino to have reached his maximum capacity to absorb political damage. In that case, a potential cabinet shuffle may find him rewarded for these efforts with a demotion. And, if this happens, a cabinet shuffle could bring in a fresh face equally eager to become the Liberal proverbial nuclear waste disposal site in exchange for the perks of office.
4.) Trudeau wants to clear out cabinet Ministers who might not run again ahead of a potential spring election
Several of Trudeau's cabinet and backbench might be looking at the Party's downward trend in the polls and find themselves looking for an exit before the next election. Trudeau might consider a cabinet shuffle to cull Members and Ministers who might not reoffer and start the process of finding fresh-faced successor candidates in their ridings, particularly if a general election is soon in the offing.
Honourable Mention
5.) Trudeau is going to run in the next election and wants to crush any internal opponents who might challenge his leadership
In 2022, Justin Trudeau watched some of his cabinet and other high-profile Liberals have their names surreptitiously floated as potential successors. Demoting these people or shuffling them all the way out is one of the few levers he has to control their rise. Whether or not that move would be effective remains to be seen. Former Liberal Cabinet Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould, for example, has seen her profile flourish in her Trudeau-imposed exile.
So even though the country needs stability and a plan to chart rough waters, many suspect a cabinet shuffle is coming soon. And any of these reasons listed could be the motivation for it.
Given current events and polling trends, it could be a combination of all of the above.