Justin Trudeau needs Donald Trump to win.

And the Liberal’s latest, very deliberate, Hail Mary election play could mean a fall 2024 election.

With a sustained 15-point polling lead developing favouring Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives over Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's governing Liberals, much virtual ink was spilled this week over Mr. Trudeau hiring Max Valiquette as his new director of communications in an attempt to reverse his fortunes.

It appears Mr. Valiquette has quickly begun his work, with the Liberals debuting a coordinated new set of talking points that seem to rely on one key plank: attempting to convince Canadians that Justin Trudeau is running for reelection against Donald Trump.

Case in point, on Wednesday, during Mr. Trudeau's first Question Period since Mr. Valiquette started in his new gig, the Liberals featured several deliberately planted references to MAGA and the American Republican Party. The first came in a pre-planned statement by Liberal Member of Parliament Adam van Koeverden when he accused Mr. Poilievre of "importing MAGA-brand, American-style politics." Then, throughout the rest of Question Period, Mr. Trudeau accused Mr. Poilievre of being a "MAGA conservative," of "pandering to far-right, Republican-style politics," and of "watching too much far-right American TV."  

For the uninitiated, it's essential to understand that Question Period is highly coordinated. The language Mr. Trudeau and his team used yesterday was not accidental. All of Team Trudeau's work during Question Period may have been soft-launched by Liberal Member of Parliament Ken Hardie on Monday when he attempted to link Mr. Poilievre to a double homicide in Winnipeg by stating in a tweet about the shooting that Mr. Poilievre was responsible for a "far-right attitude we're seeing creeping in from the US."

This approach is bad news for any poor soul hoping that the Liberals would attempt to woo them with actual results, such as lowering the cost of groceries, fuel, or housing. The strategy also suggests the Liberals don't feel they need to craft solutions to those problems. Instead, it indicates that they think they can successfully paint Mr. Poilievre as so similar to Donald Trump that Canadians will give Mr. Trudeau another four years to govern out of that fear alone. 

But this approach provides the Liberals no guarantee of reelection. And that’s because times have changed.

For starters, the shine has nearly completely worn off of Mr. Trudeau's brand. Trust in his government's ability to deliver results on critical issues is low among the voting public. The challenges Canadians face today are raw and hit home, and his government hasn’t found clear solutions. Eight years of accumulated scandal, broken election promises, policy failures, and tone deafness on priority setting mean Mr. Trudeau carries a lot of electoral baggage. His in-the-toilet personal polling numbers suggest that many people who have voted for the Liberals under his leadership in the past are now settling into a new belief that the consequences of his continuing to lead the country are worse than giving the opportunity to Mr. Poilievre.

So, the Liberals are starting with a big credibility deficit as they begin their attempt to frame Mr. Poilievre out to be the same as a certain Republican front-runner. Recent polls show how big of a problem this is for the Liberals, with more Canadians feeling that Mr. Poilievre would better defend Canadian interests in a bilateral relationship with the United States under a Donald Trump presidency than Mr. Trudeau would. 

Also, for the first time, the Liberal voting base is not united behind the prospect of Mr. Trudeau carrying the Party into the next election, while Mr. Poilievre is enjoying solid support from Conservatives. The Liberals also aren't raising much money, which suggests that their donors either aren't scared enough by Mr. Poilievre to try to stop him, don't see a fundable Liberal vision for the country, or both. A MAGA-reliant narrative, under those circumstances, is equally as likely to turn off Liberal donors than to convince them to part with their inflation-reduced dollars to fund another Trudeau-led campaign.

And that's because the Liberals haven't put much on the table to inspire anyone into trusting them with another four long years of government. So great is this problem for the Liberals that 70% of Canadians didn't know anything about last week's federal Fall Economic Statement (mid-cycle budget). Of those who did, only 22% thought the measures it contained would improve their lives. 

And so enters the Liberals' deliberate, and arguably desperate, attempt to craft a narrative that Justin Trudeau is best placed to defend the free world while using Donald Trump as a foil. This messaging suggests that they are probably hoping that over the next year, as the United States heads towards a November 2024 presidential election, Canadian broadcasters like the CBC will saturate Canadian airways with coverage of a Trump presidential bid, as opposed to covering the problems facing Canadians within our borders that the Trudeau-led Liberals haven't been able to solve (or may have caused themselves).

So, barring some highly disruptive deus ex machina event that otherwise saves Justin Trudeau’s bacon, it appears the Liberals may need Donald Trump to win the Republican primary and be a sure shot to win the overall election to have any hope of reelection. That’s because if incumbent American President Joe Biden's campaign shows momentum, the boogeyman narrative that Trudeau's Liberals are trying to breathe life into will evaporate.

That scenario, combined with a spine-steeling February 2025 pension vesting date for NDP leader (and Liberal supply and confidence partner) Jagmeet Singh and a Canadian electorate that is historically more likely to turf an incumbent in the spring after six months of winter, means that a MAGA-messaging-reliant Liberal campaign narrative with Justin Trudeau still at the helm has only one optimal window for an election: the October before a Biden vs Trump presidential election day.

So, dear readers, if you keep hearing Justin Trudeau and his Liberals talk about MAGA more than how they’re going to lower grocery prices, it's a likely bet Mr. Trudeau won't take a walk in the snow but will instead ask his caucus to pull out their election signs sometime late next summer, with a campaign message heavy on fear and light on hope.

God bless America.