This week, the Liberal Party of Canada unveiled the broad strokes of the process that will be used to select their next leader. Critical details remain missing, and big questions surround the integrity of the process.
(I invited Sean Schnell, a longtime Conservative Party strategist and campaign manager (who I’ve worked with for over a decade), to unpack what this means in audio format above. Have a listen.)
Understanding this problem is critical because the Liberal leadership race will select the next Prime Minister of Canada. A general election was not called, and the announcement by current Liberal leader and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to trigger a Liberal leadership race means his replacement, even for a short period of time, will become Prime Minister.
The winner of this race will wield the executive power of a G7 country. Even if their tenure is short-lived, the decisions they make could have lasting consequences, particularly given that the current Liberal government put the nation in a series of national crises.
The integrity of this process should concern every Canadian, regardless of political affiliation. Online voting, free memberships, and lax ID requirements create vulnerabilities that could easily be exploited. In the absence of strong safeguards to prevent big problems from happening, the temptation for some actors to bend the rules might prove too great to resist.
Until the Liberals address the glaring flaws in their process, Canadians will have every reason to doubt the legitimacy of the outcome.
Here’s why.
The Timeline
The race will conclude on March 9. This is an incredibly short period of time for the Liberals to prepare for and execute a leadership race without any concerns about integrity of the process.
Contrary to what the Liberals have been saying, the Liberal leadership race is not analogous to selecting Members of Parliament in a general election over a five to six week period. Elections Canada - the independent body that oversees federal elections in Canada, but not party candidate selection processes - is a multi-million dollar taxpayer funded behemoth that is governed by law and that has an enormous staff ready to administer an election at any time. By contrast, the Liberal Party of Canada is running on a skeleton crew, has limited resources, and no process (as of writing) to manage how it will functionally select the next Prime Minister.
We do know that candidates must declare their intent to run by January 23 and pay a hefty $350,000 entrance fee to enter the race. Meanwhile, the cutoff for membership signups (i.e. the people who will vote in this race) is January 27, leaving just 17 days to register new members. These timelines are razor-thin, and it’s fair to wonder who they’ll benefit — or disadvantage — as campaigns scramble to adapt.
Memberships — or “Registered Liberals” — remain free, something that poses significant complexity issues for the Liberals as far as maintaining the integrity of the system goes.
Candidates for leader DO NOT have been sitting Parliamentarians.
The Entrance Fee
$350,000 is an incredibly steep candidate entry fee, especially on such a tight timeline. With the individual donation cap set at $1,750 by federal law, potential candidates will need a solid fundraising network to get into the race, particularly wealthy donors who will be able to give the maximum donation.
Collecting this fee from a large volume of smaller donations will take longer. This factor means the steep nature of the fee should raise questions about why the Liberals have set up a process by which wealthy Liberal insiders buy the Prime Minister’s seat for someone who might not even be an elected Member of Parliament.
The Membership Signup Process
Memberships in the Liberal Party are free and astonishingly easy to obtain. Anyone can sign up on the party’s website, and pranksters signing up under fake names have already exploited the lack of a robust confirmation process.
The Liberals have yet to show the public how they will screen out fraudulent memberships.
At a minimum, the Liberals are going to need security measures like a double-confirmation step during the signup process, identity verification, and confirmation of Canadian citizenship or permanent residency. None of these processes exist yet, and the race is already underway.
Even more concerning is the potential for rogue actors to exploit the process. Picture this: an organizer signs up members en masse at a local community center, using their own email and phone number to complete registrations. When it comes time to vote, that same organizer uploads IDs, receives PINs (if the Liberals choose to use this approach to voting), and casts votes on behalf of others. With no payment required for membership, there’s little to deter such behaviour.
The Voting Process
This is where things get really dicey. With such a compressed timeline, it’s almost certain the Liberals will conduct the vote electronically. Using paper ballots - the gold standard for voter integrity - with such a short runway to voting day may prove to be logistically impossible. in-person polling stations across the country would be a Herculean task to organize in a two-month process.
That leaves the Liberal with online voting—and all the security vulnerabilities that come with it.
No electronic system is foolproof. Major institutions with billion-dollar IT budgets have been hacked, from telecom companies to the U.S. Treasury. The Liberals will have to ask Canadians to suspend disbelief and assume that whatever company the Liberals hire to oversee their leadership election will be immune to cyber threats. The possibility of a foreign or domestic actor interfering in the selection of our next Prime Minister isn’t just theoretical; it’s chillingly plausible.
In short, the Liberals’ internal process will select Canada’s next Prime Minister, but that process is currently full of holes that could lead to massive problems. As it stands, there are far too many unanswered questions and vulnerabilities to inspire confidence.
The Upshot
The blame for this predicament shouldn’t just be put on Trudeau. While his late announcement of his intention to depart vis a vis the timing of the next federal election forced the Liberals into all these problems that a short timeline for a leadership race creates, Liberal party brass and its caucus did nothing to force Trudeau out sooner.
Now, Canadians are facing down the barrel of having their next Prime Minister potentially selected by a process that does nothing to deter foreign interference or general fraud.
Thanks, Liberals.
General election, now.
