Hello? Morneau Shepell Recruiters? This is Chrystia Freeland calling!

Who doesn’t want to be Prime Minister of Canada? 

Well, according to whispers relayed by Paul Wells, that would be the Liberal leader in waiting, Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland.

Well’s column floats a rumor that has set the Parliamentary precinct abuzz, that is Freeland has been not-so quietly gunning for NATO’s top job. This afternoon, she added fuel to the fire when she didn’t firmly rule out chasing the gig when directly asked about it.

That Freeland might be paving an eventual exit out of politics - even if it's years in the future- is no secret.

What’s more interesting is the timing of this speculation.

Freeland is considered to be a top contender to lead the party after Trudeau. With his polling numbers in the toilet, many pundits are anticipating Trudeau will take a proverbial walk in the snow (or a Costa Rican beach, as the case may be) and potentially decide not to reoffer. If Freeland wanted the Liberal leadership, why is she being coy about the NATO job at a time when speculation about who comes after Justin is really starting to ramp up?

Freeland is also Canada’s Finance Minister. She has a huge responsibility to address two of the most pressing issues in the country – inflation and a stalling economy. So why would she not put politically damning rumors of job hunting to bed? Soon to-be Official Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre just had his opening round of question period served up on a silver platter.

So what gives?

I think, in this case, the simplest explanation is the correct one. Running for Liberal leader makes no sense for Chrystia Freeland - and she knows it.

First, she has a few things going for her from the perspective of a potential exit as opposed to running for Prime Minister.

Freeland was arguably better networked than Trudeau was before she ran to be a Member of Parliament. She was a successful author and journalist and was likely making a killing. She could easily step back into this lane if she ever wanted to, and now with a higher profile. 

The network Freeland had prior to politics has only grown with her resume. During her time in office she’s been Canada’s Minister of International Trade, Intergovernmental Affairs, Foreign Affairs, and now Finance. That, coupled with her pre-political experience, probably means she’ll have any corporate board position that she wants. Her lack of blackface pictures and personal scandal, combined with being viewed as the brains in the Trudeau cabinet means that she will be considered for international positions like the NATO gig in a way Trudeau never will be (in fact, I wonder if she asked Trudeau if he wants that job? Awks!). 

In short, Freeland would have no problem feeding herself and her family if she decided to leave politics tomorrow.

Freeland also has multiple things going against her if she did decide she wanted to run for Prime Minister.

Justin Trudeau has no problem scapegoating people for his problems (Exhibit A: Bill Morneau). Freeland’s public actions haven’t really suggested that she understands this. She hasn’t distanced herself from the worst of Trudeau’s policies. Worse, she’s gleefully leaned into them. 

During her time in Global Affairs, she was an irritant to American-Canadian diplomatic relations and led Canada into several questionable trade concessions. In Finance, she has saddled multiple future generations with debt after signing off on the largest deficit spending in Canadian history, with a less competitive Canadian economy and major problems in government service delivery to show for it. She wasn’t even remotely contrite on questions around the SNC Lavalin affair, and held the bag or was silent on Trudeau’s multiple other personal scandals. 

These are not the actions of someone thinking about running for leader after the current guy flames out. Courage has been lacking.

If Trudeau decides to run again, it would be pretty easy for the blame bus to be run over Freeland for the mismanagement of a multitude of issues. Her silence at critical moments during scandal and cheerleading of bad policy would make the bus tracks hard to rub off. At the very least, her role in Trudeau’s government on these issues will make it virtually impossible for her to run on a record that is differentiated from that of Trudeau’s.

The Liberal establishment knows this would be a problem for the Party, particularly against a newly economic issue focused Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre.

And then there are the personal attacks, harassment, sexism, and general bullshit that female political leaders like Freeland endure. Everything else aside, this is a factor in making women opt out of running for the top job. I certainly wouldn’t begrudge her for making this a consideration. But as unjust as it is, it is reality.

The path to Prime Minister is far from certain for Chrystia Freeland, and Liberal fundraisers and core activists know it. What is certain, is that Freeland has multiple other easier and more lucrative options in front of her than running for Prime Minister.

Woe betide the janitor that has to clean up Trudeau’s mess. I’m betting that Freeland, having been the co-host of that particular frat party, is the type that might leave while every other Liberal is still passed out on the floor.

Best wishes in Brussels, Chrystia.