Freeland in freefall: Trudeau's desperate attempt to save himself and clip the wings of his challengers

Trudeau attempts to buy time by smearing his most loyal female lieutenant, while attempting to force the top candidate to succeed him $hit or get off the pot.

Canadians woke up to reports from top reporter Robert Fife that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was actively considering turfing his most loyal foot soldier, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, from her role and replacing him with carbon-tax proponent Mark Carney.

There is much to unpack here, but starting with the following point is critical: this is a purposeful leak made by the PMO and is as close to a formal announcement as it gets.  Fife's article cites an anonymous source, but it was almost certainly someone highly placed in the Prime Minister's Office with a mandate to purposely leak this information. There is no possible, logical way that Mr. Trudeau's PMO - which functions in a constant state of media lockdown - would randomly and without purpose leak this type of damning information to Mr. Fife, Canada's most devastating and well-read investigative reporter. Nothing short of a full-throated, proactive declaration of support for Ms. Freeland from Mr. Trudeau himself will prove otherwise.

So why did they do it? 

1.) Mr. Trudeau needs to clip Mr. Carney's overly ambitious wings

For months now, former central banker (Carbon Tax) Mark Carney has been circling the heavily wounded carcass of Mr. Trudeau's political career like a turkey vulture that hasn't eaten in weeks. It's hard for Mr. Trudeau to rally the troops and convince Liberals that he should lead the team into the next election with this sort of thing going on.

But by notionally offering Mr. Carney the Finance Minister role, Mr. Trudeau clips his wings. If Mr. Carney doesn't take the job, it's easy for Mr. Trudeau's leakers to characterize Mr. Carney to potential Liberal supporters as opportunists who don't want to do the heavy lifting of governing when the chips are down. It also forces the media to ask whether he'd take the job. If he does take the job, it forces Mr. Carney to take on some of Mr. Trudeau's water, putting him in the same league as the other - and more preferred by Team Trudeau (read: Dominic Leblanc, Melanie Joly) - eventual top contenders for the Liberal's top job.

Either way, Mr. Trudeau has undoubtedly made it more difficult for Mr. Carney to continue to have a toe in multiple worlds - he can't continue to swan around in some of the plum roles he has if it looks like he's going to leave them for a formal political role. It's now shit or get off the pot time now, for Mr. Carney—brutal move.

To be clear, no matter what anyone says, this isn't about giving Mr. Carney a chance to manage Canada's finances. Much like how Mr. Morneau was treated, if he did take the role, Mr. Trudeau would force Mr. Carney to use his lefty-ESG bonafides to sell Mr. Trudeau's policies, not the other way around. Also, unless Mr. Carney ran in an upcoming byelection (and won, a tall order right now), he would be Finance Minister without any direct accountability to the Canadian public - something the electorate is not in the mood for right now.

Win-win for Mr. Trudeau, lose-lose for Mr. Carney.

2.) Mr. Trudeau wants a scapegoat for his failures, and he's picked Ms. Freeland

The leaker in Mr. Fife's story used a playbook that has become a hallmark of Mr. Trudeau's treatment of inconvenient people in his cabinet - anonymously smearing the living hell out of them without any opportunity for them to respond. That this play is the trademark of the world's smallest and weakest men is beside the point, which is that Mr. Trudeau has already done the same thing to former Finance Minister Bill Morneau and truth-teller Jody Wilson Reybould, who both alluded to this point in books they published subsequent to their ousters.

It is preposterous for Mr. Trudeau to think that he can pin the blame for his generationally damaging mismanagement of the Canadian economy solely on Ms. Freeland. The buck for the decisions on the carbon tax, the housing crisis, and more stopped solely with him. Worse, he chose to keep Ms. Freeland in her role in last summer's major cabinet shuffle. If she was doing as shitty a job as the leaker expressed in Mr. Fife's story, why not turf her then?

The answer is that Mr. Trudeau didn't need a scapegoat then, but he sure does now. He just lost a byelection in a previously safe Liberal seat. Trailing popular Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre by over 20 points in the polls, Mr. Trudeau is now facing open calls for his resignation as Liberal Party leader, which he wasn't a year ago.

With this move, instead of reflecting on how he could improve, he’s probably going to try to internally blame the byelection loss on Ms. Freeland and the local Liberal candidate who was a former senior staffer in her office. And instead of owning up to his decisions and setting a new path forward, he will attempt to blame a woman who has loyally (albeit stupidly) carried his water for nearly a decade. Because that's what feminists do.

This story has damaged Ms. Freeland’s reputation - if she was thinking about proactively leaving, it will be harder for her to do now.

3.) The leak signals a cabinet shuffle to caucus, and Mr. Trudeau hopes it will prompt better behaviour from his caucus

Mr. Fife's story also signals to Mr. Trudeau's restless caucus that a cabinet shuffle could be in the offing. In addition to serving up Ms. Freeland's head to them on a platter, Mr. Trudeau's historically compliant and self-motivated backbench could cool their jets and stop complaining to the media if they think that they might get promoted. That this particular promotion is paired with the most poisoned of chalices will be beside the point for many because, hey, free car and driver! 

So, will this move help turn the Liberal ship around?

Absolutely not. This move signals the worst type of out-of-control disarray at the top tier of Canadian federal government administration. This chaos and instability will not solve Canada's affordability crisis, attract investment, or improve Canadians' lives. It is simply a crass, disgusting Hail Mary play made by Justin Trudeau in a selfish attempt to cling to power. It should concern every member of his caucus because it sends a clear message: no matter how loyal you are, if beneficial to him, Mr. Trudeau will publicly slit your throat in the most brutal way possible.

At best, it might buy Mr. Trudeau and his chief of staff a few days to take another vacation before he thinks about how he's going to survive the fall session. Mr. Trudeau's thinking is probably something like this: as long as people are talking about Ms. Freeland and whether or not she deserves to be fired, they aren't doing the same for him. That he’s willing to cause chaos like this to save his own hide should be cause enough for his caucus to figure out how to abandon him.

Election, now.