A purposeless leader is the most dangerous type.

Justin Trudeau has lost his “why” and that’s a problem for everyone.

In some ways, becoming a Member of Parliament is like signing up for a wild-ass bull ride. Few finish unbruised, so anyone thinking about climbing into the chute better have a clear head, skill, and a solid reason for wanting to do so to begin with.

But for many, the reason why Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau still has his spurs on has become unclear, with consequences for tens of millions of people. 

Case in point: in light of a sustained and widening polling gap between his Liberal party and the opposition Conservatives, during year-end interviews, Mr. Trudeau faced tough questions about whether he would reoffer in the next election. This was the perfect opportunity for Mr. Trudeau to offer compelling reasons why he should helm the country for another two to six years. But his dispassionate repetition of talking points he used as far back as 2015 suggests the truth: he doesn’t know the answer to that question himself.

So the question media should be focused on isn’t about if Mr. Trudeau will reoffer but rather why, with personal polling numbers reaching sustained and historic lows, is he staying on at all?

Mr. Trudeau’s original purpose in seeking the leadership of the Liberal party in 2013 seems to have been equal measures about satisfying the Liberals’ need for a well-known saviour to lead the party after Michael Ignatieff and Stephane Dion’s respective election losses, defeating the Conservatives, and fulfilling a sense of prophecy that he was destined to follow in the footsteps of his late father and former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau. 

Ten years hence, the younger Trudeau cannot convincingly articulate what comes next regarding the next chapter in his tenure in politics or life in general. That is, while Mr. Trudeau’s pre-political wealth will likely ensure that he won’t ever have to worry about paying the bills after politics, it might be harder for him to figure out who he is as a person once he his time in office comes to an end.

Justin Trudeau has lived and breathed politics and the national spotlight since birth. He grew up as the son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau, a towering figure in Canadian politics for decades. It’s probably difficult for Trudeau the younger to reimagine that core part of his identity after having lived with politics at the center of his life since day one, and now having served three terms as Prime Minister himself. 

Further, Mr. Trudeau might find the traditional pro-politicial paths available to former political party leaders rockier than for most. Despite being well networked, Mr. Trudeau’s particular and dated doctrine of moralizing progressive politics is rapidly falling out of fashion, with little evidence that it will come back en vogue any time soon. 

He could overcome this by showing the capacity to grow and consider other points of view, but he hasn’t done so. While this steadfast adherence to his brand of (divisive) political dogma may have eked out a minority government for him in 2021, it also likely limited both his future electoral prospects and his post-political appeal. Combine this fact with Mr. Trudeau’s lack of pre-political professional work experience, a performance in government that demonstrated a lack of fiscal restraint and ability to mitigate both personal and corporate risk, lack of bipartisan allies, and the blackface photos probably make him a tough sell to many high profile going concerns or speakers tours.

Compounding these issues is the fact that Mr. Trudeau just turned 52. This means he’s old enough to think about the personal cost of recasting himself as something outside of a Liberal politician in terms of good years left but young enough to be unhappy starting a new life chapter that doesn’t involve the adrenaline rush and ego stroke that the trappings of high office can deliver. There are scores of politicians around Mr. Trudeau’s age who, after losing seats or leadership positions, have become shells of their former selves for similar reasons. But none of this is to say that there isn’t life after politics for Mr. Trudeau, but he probably should starting thinking about what that looks like if for no other reason than to clearly evaluate if he has a moral reason beyond self-paralysis to stay in Canada’s top elected job.

But few will - or should - find sympathy for Mr. Trudeau as he grapples with this reality. He is the current Prime Minister of Canada, and his actions affect the lives of tens of millions of people. Attempting to stay on in the job because of some identity crisis is not going to offer the focus and innovation needed to provide solutions to significant issues like a divided confederation, a generationally high cost of living crisis, a government that can’t seem to get anything built, and Canada’s place in a highly volatile global geopolitical situation. And his apparent lack of purpose means it’s hard for the country to predict what his government will do next when it needs political stability to address significant challenges. 

Mr. Trudeau, especially from his father’s time in office, should know better than anyone that a politician’s time in their role is time-limited, that you’re coming off the bull one way or another. Much of that time limit is the voting public eventually tiring of any given politician, but the other is the toll that the focus needed to get the job done well takes on personal health, family and friends. Politicians who cannot fathom reinventing themselves in a future vision - either for the voting public or their personal lives - usually are deficient in the empathy, courage and imagination critical to accomplishing anything of merit in life.

Said differently, knowing if, when and how to get on, stay on and get the hell off is the art of both bullriding and politics. 

Here’s hoping Mr. Trudeau finds the confidence to figure that out before he and the rest of us sustain any more injuries from his wild-ass ride.