A big Liberal cabinet shuffle cometh.
Who might be in and who might be out - all the hot t on "shuffle time" from Parliament Hill
In the early hours of Thursday morning Parliament rose for the summer constituency recess.
After a bruising session for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal government, Trudeau's inner circle will want two things more than anything as politicians head onto the summer barbecue circuit. First, a break. And second, something to reset the political narrative.
So here comes the cabinet shuffle. And Liberal inside sources are already prepositioning the shuffle as being a major one.
So ahead of this now all–but-certain event, here's the lowdown on what's being heard on Parliament Hill about the real reasons behind why Trudeau is looking to shake up his front bench, what political considerations he’ll have to ponder when choosing who’s in and who’s out, and what the inside track is on who's likely to get promoted and who may get the chop.
Why will Trudeau shuffle his cabinet?
The reasons are many.
It's roughly halftime (two years) into the Canadian federal Liberal government's minority government mandate and nearly eight years since they formed government in 2015.
To change the channel away from scandal and issues he hasn’t been handling well (read: foreign interference, crime, inflation, and housing), Trudeau needs fresh blood around his cabinet table. To prevent his caucus from planning a coup on his leadership while they watch their polling numbers nosedive, Trudeau also needs to provide the reward of cabinet spots to a few backbenchers.
A cabinet shuffle could provide weeks of content for the media that focuses on the future of the Liberal team, as opposed to being focused where it has been - on a tired looking government and its weak spots.
What political factors will Trudeau be considering when shuffling?
Despite what the public may think about how a political cabinet is made, the reality is that Justin Trudeau will probably be considering a lot of factors other than competency when he seeks to reset his team of Ministers.
Some of these are more evident than others. Trudeau will need to provide high-profile cabinet positions to caucus members in regions that have seen a decline in the polls. He should be looking to beef up broad regional representation from across Canada. He'll think about demoting underperformers and problem creators, and promoting people with a proven track record for staying on the message of Liberal talking points, and for being loyal to him and members of his inner circle.
He'll also want to ensure that caucus members with deep fundraising networks, social media reach, or connections into large voting blocks of specific segments of the Liberal voter coalition are seen to have a voice at the cabinet table too. He'll be calling bluffs on whether current Ministers will be retiring at the end of this Parliament to make way for caucus members who will reoffer. If he’s smart, he will also be thinking about how to give more profile to centrists in his caucus after years of leaving the Liberal's right-of-centre political flank largely unguarded.
From there, he'll want to ensure that future leadership contestants don't get so much profile that they could challenge his leadership, while managing the egos of backbenchers whose cabinet dreams he will shatter if they don't get the promotion they may be expecting. He may also aim to keep gender parity and a strong cadre of fully bilingual Ministers around the cabinet table. He'll also be grading contenders on their ability to communicate tough political messages and nip problematic issues in the bud.
From a less obvious perspective, caucus members who haven't managed to ingratiate themselves to - or worse, have pissed off - Trudeau's inner circle, for example, senior PMO staffers Katie Telford and Brian Clow, may also find themselves on the outs. Telford and Clow, who will undoubtedly be helping Trudeau draw up the new cabinet roster, will also be thinking about who could make their lives easier (or worse) if they were to be put in cabinet. Telford and Clow, who as Chief and Deputy Chief of Staff to Trudeau, bear the emotional labour of managing caucus discontent, will also be considering strikes against anyone who voted against the party line on contentious votes, provided leaks to the media, spends too much time stirring up drama, or have reputations for commiserating with other established caucus malcontents at notable Parliament Hill watering holes.
If Trudeau can't accommodate all these considerations with a small group of people, he may consider expanding his cabinet. Watch for things like regional development agencies (like ACOA) to get their own cabinet Ministers, or big departments like Foreign Affairs and Defense to be allocated both a senior and junior minister.
Now onto the fun part: the roster.
Who's potentially in, and who's might get the chop?
There are a lot of similarities between tweaking a professional sports team during the offseason and putting together a summer cabinet shuffle, starting with…..
The Injured List
Marco Mendicino - Minister of Public Safety: If there ever has been a definition of a cabinet Minister's career being dead on arrival, it's that of Marco Mendicino as he heads into this summer’s shuffle. Between failing to do anything proactive about the transfer of serial killer Paul Bernardo out of a maximum security prison, pissing off both sides of the gun debate, flubbing management of the RCMP, and musing about using tanks on Canadian civilians, there isn't much more to add to columnist Don Martin's scathing analysis of this Minister's nuclear-grade failures.
After spending years as both a reliable bullet-taker on television panels for Trudeau and as a remarkably successful self-promoter to Trudeau's senior staff, Mendicino was elevated to cabinet. But few could now argue that his spectacular list of failures as a Minister is forgivable in light of that service, particularly since he seemed to have lost the favour of most of the Parliamentary Press Gallery, has been given multiple chances to redeem himself, his cloud of radiation currently risks poisoning the entire caucus, and is keeping senior staff in a constant state of crisis management. He also brings little to the Liberal political table regarding diversity, fundraising capacity, or national political connections.
The only question in the minds of Ottawa politicos now is if he will be shuffled entirely out of the cabinet or merely be given a demotion. But given he's already flubbed another critical file, immigration, the faces of his caucus colleagues on the rare occasion where he's allowed to take questions in the House seem to say it all - prognosis, terminal.
Bill Blair - Minister of Emergency Preparedness: If Marco Mendicino can be given credit for anything, it would be for stepping into a hot mess created by his predecessor, former Minister of Public Safety turned Minister of Emergency Preparedness Bill Blair. Blair could have had a redemption moment this summer and by helping to put Canada on solid preparedness footing ahead of wildfire season. It’s safe to say that he did not knock that mission out of the park. It's easy to see how Blair could be shuffled aside for fresher blood from his part of the Greater Toronto Area.
Ahmed Hussen - Minister of Housing: Hussen, like Blair and Mendocino, has amassed a less-than-stellar track record in all of the files he's held. However, with housing affordability quickly becoming the number one issue for Canadians, Trudeau can't afford to keep a perpetually weak communicator and manager like Hussen at the head of this file. That, coupled with Hussen's recent role in funding a known anti-Semite, will probably be enough to see him firmly demoted into a portfolio with little responsibility, or shuffled out entirely.
Omar Alghabra - Minister of Transportation: Millions of Canadians who have been waylaid in airports, in endless security lines, or stuck on planes and trains with no help in site all have a bone to pick with the current Canadian Transport Minister. If summer 2023 travel turns out to be even remotely as fubar as the past 18 months have been, a shuffle in this portfolio is certainly not out of the question.
Pablo Rodriguez - Minister of Heritage: Rodriguez's tenure as Heritage Minister will undoubtedly be remembered for his promotion of bills C-11 and C-18, which most recently have caused Facebook and Google to ban the distribution of news links in Canada. The national furor over the bills is not confined to one political stripe and will likely grow if the Liberals fail to negotiate a favorable outcome with the web giants, whose move caused by the bills is speculated to hasten the decline of print media outlets like the Toronto Star and National Post. Having done the dirty work on these bills for the PMO, and with fresher Montreal blood waiting in the wings, Rodriguez's reward might be a demotion.
On Waivers and Free Agents
Chrystia Freeland - Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister: Freeland has made no secret about looking for another team to play for. She has a growing reputation for being a weak foil against former Finance critic turned leader of the Conservative Party Pierre Poilievre on the topic of deficit-spending-driven inflation. Over the last few months, Parliament Hill has been rife with rumours of her total departure from politics, not just the Finance portfolio, as she seeks to distance herself from her reputation of being the architect of several unsuccessful financial policies of the Trudeau government and an ill-received 2023-2024 federal budget. A Freeland departure from Finance could give Trudeau cover within his cabinet for a major shuffle and a fig leaf to attempt to justify a fall prorogation. So it wouldn't be a shock to see her shuffled out of the cabinet entirely on the heels of an announcement of a new job. Speculation over her replacement involves candidates that meet some very specific criteria. Trudeau’s next Finance Minister will probably have no leadership ambition of their own, and have a reputation for being a reliable fixer who is loyal to Trudeau. This is probably why Health Minister Yves Duclos and Infrastructure Minister Dominic Leblanc's names are frequently mentioned as potential successors to Freeland.
Ministers of Defence, Innovation, and Global Affairs: Anita Anand, François-Philippe Champagne, and Mélanie Joly have all allegedly begun to explore the possibility of looking at a different job too - leading the Liberal party in a post-Trudeau era. Given their prominence, Trudeau can't afford to shuffle them without ruffling feathers. At the same time, he probably won’t allow them to gain so much influence and profile that they could successfully challenge his leadership before he's ready to retire. Expect Trudeau to use the shuffle as cover for things like a Chief of Staff shuffle in these portfolios, the establishment of junior ministers to diffuse the spotlight, or the assignment of politically unpalatable policy files to these folks if Trudeau feels the need to clip their wings. Additionally, if Trudeau does shuffle any of them, it will be to send a firm message to his backbench that in spite of falling polling numbers, he is still their party leader.
Consideration of the salary cap
Minister of Veterans Affairs and Minister of Mental Health and Addictions: Like Bill Blair, Lawrence MacAulay, and Carolyn Bennet are veteran MPs but not considered to be strong performers. This year, MacAulay’s department made news for allegedly proactively offering medically assisted dying to a veteran, and Bennett has yet to present a comprehensive federal response to Canada’s catastrophic opioid crisis. Expect Trudeau to press all of them on their plans to reoffer before allowing them to stay in his cabinet.
The trade list
Sean Fraser - Minister of Immigration: The current Minister of Immigration, Sean Fraser, has been relied upon by Trudeau over the years to communicate and manage through some sticky situations. A reliable performer in a murky sea of Liberal political scandal who has been working on his French language skills, many are expecting Fraser to get a big promotion. That is if his detractors haven’t been able to successfully portray him as being too eager about his longer-term leadership aspirations.
Pascale St-Onge - Minister of Sport: Pascale St-Onge was promoted to cabinet upon her election in 2021. Suppose Pablo Rodriguez is demoted from the Heritage file. In that case, St-Onge's background with a prominent Quebec cultural organization and the district she represents at risk of being won by a different party come into play when considering his successor. Trudeau may look to St-Onge as a potential replacement in what is seen to be one of the most important Ministries to the province of Quebec to shore up support in a province that’s critical to any federal voter coalition.
The potential draft picks
MP Anna Gainey: The very freshly minted MP from Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount is already hitting the top of cabinet speculation lists for a reason - she's long been one of Trudeau's most trusted confidants. She’s also the former President of the Liberal Party. Even though her byelection win is barely a week old, Gainey's long-standing close relationship (so close that she was on Trudeau's ill-advised trip to the Aga Khan's island) with many of Trudeau's inner circle, as well as her reputation within that circle for being a trusted set of hands, could see her being inducted as a cabinet Minister before she takes her seat for the first time in the House of Commons this fall. The only consideration for Trudeau in her elevation will be how big the backlash might be from some of Trudeau's longtime trench-working Quebec caucus loyalists, for example, Steven MacKinnon (while he serves as Whip, he is not considered part of the cabinet), Greg Fergus, and Rachel Bendayan, if they are passed over in favour of Gainey. That said, expect Gainey to get a seat at the table, likely in a prominent portfolio, like housing.
MP Ben Carr: Like Anna Gainey, Ben Carr is fresh off a byelection win, but unlike Gainey, is primarily being included in cabinet speculation lists because of his riding location - Western Canada. Having elected virtually no Members of Parliament in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, or Alberta, the Liberals have slim pickings for cabinet in that part of the country. But unlike Gainey, Carr isn't part of Trudeau's inner circle, and Manitoba seems to be less important to the Liberal's political fortunes than other parts of the country. Additionally, Winnipeg area MP Kevin Lamoureux, Trudeau's frequent fixer in the House of Commons, would likely be livid if he was passed over for promotion in favour of a rookie like Carr. These factors make Carr a longshot, at best, for promotion.
MP Charles Souza: Career politician and former Ontario Liberal Finance Minister Charles Souza likely didn't come out of retirement to run in a recent byelection in Mississuaga-Lakeshore to sit in the federal backbench in perpetuity. Expect him to be making the case for a promotion for himself. But his odds of making cabinet, given the number of more seasoned Liberal MPs from his region in the context of his federal rookie status, are slim. Look for him to be offered something like a Committee Chairmanship instead.
The call-up list
MPs Arielle Kayabaga and Salma Zahid: These MPs each hail from seats that could easily be in play for other parties in the next election. Both currently serve on the committee that is a hot-button issue for the Liberals: immigration. Should the current Minister, Sean Fraser, get shuffled into another hot-button file like Public Safety, and should Trudeau want to promote a rookie into his place, either of these two could get a cabinet call.
MP Rob Oliphant: Given that a Mendicino-sized hole in the cabinet may soon need to be filled in the GTA, promoting Oliphant could kill several birds with one stone. With many foreign diplomats ornery about Global Affairs Minister Melanie Joly's seeming inability to meet with them, elevating him to a junior minister from his current Parliamentary Secretary position within Global Affairs could expand Joly’s diplomatic capacity (and potentially give the PMO someone to check her political ambition if the need arose). Oliphant has already been made part of the Privy Council by Trudeau, so his promotion may cause relatively little new jealous grumbling.
MPs David McGuinty and Iqra Khalid: Both are current members of the NSICOP committee, so there has been some gossip about one of them being called up into the cabinet, given the need for fresh faces on the volume of public safety scandals the Trudeau government is currently in the middle of. But both represent ridings in close proximity to other cabinet Ministers, making their promotions likely dependent on other cabinet Ministers being shuffled out entirely.
Stuck on defense
MPs Jennifer O'Connell and Mark Gerretsen: Every team needs its enforcers, and every player takes the occasional cheap shot - this is as true in politics as it is in hockey. But if a Member of Parliament spends most of their time bringing heat and instead of light to their work, they can find themselves burdened with a reputation for being angry and small, instead of being known as hopeful and broadly competent.
Having done years of ugly work for team Trudeau during the cut and thrust of House and Committee debate, in spite of showing some potential to be strong communicators, these two may have crossed the Rubicon and become permanently unpromotable. O’Connell had an opportunity this year to show some range in her committee work on the serious topic of foreign interference, but opted to take a much lower road. And Gerretsen ended the session by giving the Trudeau Salute to the Chief Opposition Whip.
I don’t make these remarks about these two with glee - watching them it’s easy to see that they could each be capable of much better as Parliamentarians. Here's hoping that they (and others like them) learn from yet another cabinet passover that the hard-won but very undersung qualities of collegiality and hopefulness actually bolster one’s capacity to get work done and inspire others, no matter where one sits in the House of Commons. And, that they learn that always doing the opposite can both kill one’s political career and soul in the process. No PMO dangling-carrot is worth that.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau: It’s easy to see where O’Connell and Gerretsen’s pratfalls come from when looking at the example set by their party leader. Of all his scandal and economic screw ups, the thing that has most eroded Trudeau’s moral authority to govern is his willingness to wedge Canadians on sensitive issues for political gain. If anyone needs to be shuffled, it’s him - even the most comfortable team mangers can find themselves getting the boot. And given everything that’s happened, Canadians might be finally in the mood to make that decision for him.
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(Special thanks to my colleague Kevin Waugh, Member of Parliament, venerable Canadian sportscaster, and legalizer of single-game sports betting, for his insights on analogies for this piece.)